The Oxford Analytica Daily Brief delivers timely, impartial and actionable analysis of emerging trends and developments in the global political economy, using a unique combination of external experts and in-house analysts. The Oxford Analytica expert network held a webinar on Tuesday, March 8, which discussed the energy crisis in developed markets. 

Energy prices have risen sharply over the last year, from around USD60 per barrel in early 2021 to almost over USD100/b. Wholesale gas prices in Europe and Asia have been at elevated levels for months too, pushing up the cost of gas and electricity for businesses and households, and serving as a principal driver of the surge in inflation. A multitude of factors lie behind this: recovering demand as economies shake off their pandemic restrictions; the decline of gas production in Europe and the shuttering of coal-fired power generation; the struggles of OPEC+ to raise crude output; similar difficulties in some of the world’s major gas producers; and recently a crisis in Europe triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

In many states, high energy costs and the prospect of energy shortages pose a threat to the post-pandemic recovery, consumer sentiment, central-bank efforts to support economies while curbing inflation, and—potentially—the commitment to decarbonisation. For companies and governments, it is hugely important now to understand the different regional characteristics of the energy crisis, its proximate causes and the near-term prospects.

By attending this webinar, you will be able to answer these questions:

• What are the supply and demand drivers of movements in energy prices recently? Is geopolitics a serious factor?
• What is the outlook for prices over the next year? And how do prospects differ between countries in North America, Europe and elsewhere?
• In what ways will persistently high energy prices affect economic prospects this year, and how will the impact differ between countries?

A discussion between:

• Robin Mills, CEO of Qamar Energy, and fellow at the Columbia University Center on Global Energy Policy; Member of the Oxford Analytica Expert Network
• Megan Greene, Dame DeAnne Julius Senior Academy Fellow in International Economics at Chatham House; Senior Fellow at Harvard Kennedy School; Member of the Oxford Analytica Expert Network
• Richard Connolly, Associate Fellow, Chatham House; Senior lecturer at the Centre for Russian, European and Eurasian Studies, Birmingham University; Member of the Oxford Analytica Expert Network
• Moderated by: Nick Redman, Director of Analysis, Oxford Analytica